Aprovecho para presentaros lo último que me ha llegado sobre este tema. Es el proyecto de Master que han realizado en la Universidad de Oporto:
Patterns of biological invasion in the herpetofauna of the Balearic Islands: Determining the origin and predicting the expansion as conservation tools. (Los patrones de invasión biológica en la herpetofauna de las Islas Baleares: Determinar el origen y la predicción de la expansión como herramientas de conservación.)
Iolanda Raquel Silva Rocha. Mestrado em Biodiversidade, Genética e Evolução
Universidade do Porto. Faculdade de Ciências. Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos
Os cuelgo un resumen en ingles del trabajo e intentaré que podais descargarlo proximamente.
Abstract
Dispersal movements of fauna occur naturally; however the human culture and its expansion, leading to several translocations of animals in a high rate, are causing a virtual epidemic of biological invasions. These biological invasions are very problematic and currently are a major cause of biodiversity loss. Thus, it becomes important to understand how the process of introduction happens, which are the statuses of the populations introduced, and which are the better measures to prevent and minimize the effects. The herpetofauna of Balearic Islands constitute the most outstanding case in the Mediterranean Basin, with more alien amphibians and reptiles, some recently detected, than native
The principal goals of this thesis are: (1) to confirm the allochthonous status of the putative alien populations; (2) to determine the origin(s) of the introduced populations; (3) to infer the most probable pathway of introductions; (4) to model the habitat suitability of the Balearic Islands for snake species; and (5) to evaluate how the suitability will evolve through the time. The species that were analysed in this work are five snakes (Hemorrhois hippocrepis, Malpolon monspessulanus, Macroprotodon sp., Natrix maura and Rhinechis scalaris), two lizards (Timon lepidus and Podarcis sicula) and one amphibian (Hyla meridionalis).
The methodology used to achieve the origin comprises the comparison of sequences of introduced populations with those from phylogeographic studies of the native range. To model the suitability, a projection to Balearic Islands using occurrence data from the autochthonous distribution and bioclimatic variables is performed for the present and for the future (2020, 2050 and 2080).
The timing of introduction is different between the species and populations: Macroprotodon sp., N. maura, R. scalaris (Menorca), P. sicula and H. meridionalis took place during historical times; H. hippocrepis, M. monspessulanus, R. scalaris (other islands) and T. lepidus in XXI century. The results show a Tunisian origin for Macroprotodon (mauritanicus), a potential Iberian origin for H. hippocrepis and M. monspessulanus, an Iberian/SE French origin for N. maura, a SE Iberian origin for T. lepidus, a Sicilian/Sardinian origin for P. sicula and a SW Iberian origin for H. meridionalis. The results of R. scalaris do not allow the identification of the putative origin of the population within its range in Iberia and SE France. The main pathway of introduction for the most recent introductions is the ornamental plants trade (mainly old olive trees).
Regarding to the suitability of the islands to snakes species, the obtained results predict significant but limited suitability in the present, which will become, with exception of M. mauritanicus, higher in the future for all the three consecutive scenarios of climate change analysed.
This multidisciplinary approach, joining molecular data with ecological modelling together, reveals a promising tool for understanding of the complex invasion process and, hence, supporting conservation planning.
